The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression
Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels
through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and
wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many
countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000
population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when
death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could
be saved. Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and
fewer lives saved.